You think it was Dalton, because he has long hair... I've seen the theory before. Its the type of theory I don't like: One that has no hard evidence, only circumstancial evidence, ei "long hair." Come now, your not trying to say that Dalton is the only person who has long hair, are you? I need more proof to give that theory any credance.
Here is why I don't think FATE/El Nido had anything to do with Porre's rise.
On the saved timeline, time progressed till FATE was made, and then Time Crash, El Nido is made, and were on Timeline CC. One of FATE's purposes is to preserve the timeline in order that it still exists, as not to create a causal loop. FATE/El Nido being the reason for Porre's rise/Guardia's fall would be one big ass change in history, and would possibly jepordize its existance. FATE influencing any major change in history goes directly agianst its programming. So basically, we must assume that FATE/El Nido most likely did not have a role to play in Porre's rise.