Presidental Vote

[nightmare975]

Nader

[placidchap]

To be honest I don't like either. Obama is going to make me pay for the health care of people who are to lazy to do good in high school so they can't get into a decent college to get a decent job. I work for my money and to pay my health bills, not to pay someone who refuses to try.

Not everyone is "book smart" to do well in high school; public education is not exactly optimized for everyone under the sun.

Not everyone can afford to attend college or university.

Not everyone who can afford post secondary school has the opportunity to go.

Not everyone who can't afford to pay their medical bills are lazy and "refuse to try to work for the money to pay"; most with low level education work harder than those with higher levels of education, but make considerably less, with just enough to cover basic needs.

Not everyone who actually has a post secondary education can afford to pay their medical bills.

Are you catching my drift?

The notion of inputs (time/effort) =ing outputs ($$$) that contaminates the American psyche is a faulty one.  There are other factors at play when it comes to the "output".

Everyone chipping in to help those who need it, what is wrong with that?  That is a solid base for a healthy society.  But the U.S.' base is that of profit, both corporations and individuals, leading to an unhealthy, "everyone for themselves" society...just look at the current financial meltdown..proving that living by and dying by profit and trying for complete laisse fare is a piss poor way function.  The only plus to profit oriented goals, in my opinion, is that it brings out human ingenuity, but then again that will also be the end of us all bar a natural disaster.

Of course you are entitled to believe as you like, it is a "free" country after all.

[KebreI]

Not everyone is "book smart" to do well in high school; public education is not exactly optimized for everyone under the sun.

Bullshit I've seen people who are complete retarded pass public schools, and I've seen geniuses fail. It has nothing to do with smarts its all effort, as is everything you've just tried to dismiss.

[placidchap]

Effort is a major component but not the whole.  An almost equitable part of life is having to deal and rely on others being honest and good natured.  Normal people who lose their fortunes with scandals like Enron, World Com, the current Mortgage crisis/stock markets plummeting around the world...if those people lose their wealth and/or jobs and cant pay for medical bills or lose their house or can't retire, is it because they were lazy and didn't put enough effort into it?  No, they got fucked because other assholes were trying to make a profit and in the end, put the country and a lot of its citizens into the toilet.  Nothing new really, when capitalism is involved. 
I wouldn't be surprised if there was a depression coming around the corner.   

[Thought]

Bullshit I've seen people who are complete retarded pass public schools, and I've seen geniuses fail. It has nothing to do with smarts its all effort, as is everything you've just tried to dismiss.

Ah, I see Saturday Night Live and Tina Fey has taught you well.
Anyone can get health care, you just have to want it enough.

Joking aside, success in anything (including career success, and in turn obtaining employer provided healthcare) is far more complex than "just effort." Effort is a key component, but it is just one factor among many that helps determine success; not all of which are in the control of the individual. Natural intelligence is quite useful, though to a certain degree, effort can replace intelligence. Yet neither of those account for everything. Simple charisma is quite important as well, and random happenstance is king. Since we are on the topic of the President, do you think Reconstruction after the Civil War would have gone better if Lincoln had just put in more effort in regards to living? Or would George Bush Sr. have been reelected if he merely tried harder? Certainly a bullet and Rose Perot had a hand in how events turned out and there was little either Lincoln or George H.W. Bush could have done to mitigate them, intelligence-wise or effort-wise.

I believe science actually gives us a very nice view of how one achieves success. An investigator must be knowledgeable to even know how to formulate a novel research project. An investigator must also be intelligence to figure out how to best approach that project and to figure out how to address the inherent setbacks along the way (things line "crap, this microarray isn't producing clean results; is the problem with the machine, the gel, the subject, etc?"). An investigator must also be willing to devote ridiculous amounts of effort to the project (in scientific research, there is no such thing as an 8 hour day, weekends off, or holidays; if its Christmas but an experiment needs to be tended to, it is off to the lab). However an investigator has to work against the incompetence of others (lab techs, graduate students, control centers, government official, institution policies, etc). An investigator also must work against the clock (a research project is worthless if someone else publishes first). And finally, an investigator must also work against his own colleagues (spies and sabotage are as much of the world of science as they are of the world of politics).

For every thing a single individual can do to improve their lot, others can undo it, and random happenstance (in the above example, not every research project can produce positive results) can undo it all.

Intelligence, book-smarts, and effort are just some of the things a person can do to help themselves succeed, but they will be held back by others, by the circumstances they find themselves in, and by plain bad luck.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a depression coming around the corner.   

Recession, certainly, but in all reality we may be already approaching the bottom. Things have been quite bad over the last 7 years (indeed, our economy is doing better than I would have expected, considering all the hits it has taken), but things seem to be coming to a point. As credit dries up hopefully individuals will stop relying on credit. Which will necessitate saving in turn (as it is unlikely people will ever stop buying stuff). That will slow down the economy more, granted, but the act of saving will also give people a sense of security (provided banks stop failing; and there aren't that many more that can fail, right? ). When people feel more secure, they'll be willing to spend and invest more, stimulating the economy.

The fever should break soon and well be on the road to recovery. True, we wont be able to run a marathon anytime soon, but as long as we don't turn into a hypochondriac, we will eventually be doing quite well again... then people will begin to overestimate the economy, do incredibly stupid things, and we'll crash again. But hopefully we'll learn a little and the next time it wont be so bad.

[placidchap]

Recession, certainly, but in all reality we may be already approaching the bottom. Things have been quite bad over the last 7 years (indeed, our economy is doing better than I would have expected, considering all the hits it has taken), but things seem to be coming to a point. As credit dries up hopefully individuals will stop relying on credit. Which will necessitate saving in turn (as it is unlikely people will ever stop buying stuff). That will slow down the economy more, granted, but the act of saving will also give people a sense of security (provided banks stop failing; and there aren't that many more that can fail, right? ). When people feel more secure, they'll be willing to spend and invest more, stimulating the economy.

The fever should break soon and well be on the road to recovery. True, we wont be able to run a marathon anytime soon, but as long as we don't turn into a hypochondriac, we will eventually be doing quite well again... then people will begin to overestimate the economy, do incredibly stupid things, and we'll crash again. But hopefully we'll learn a little and the next time it wont be so bad.

I see you are quite an optimist, Thought.  The bottom is still to come and the fever will rise a few more degrees.  Assuming the cancer has not hit the lymph nodes, there may not be a depression, but they are only finally scratching the surface of this disaster.  Who knows how deep it is.  I do hope that people smarten up and realize that credit should never be relied on, and they start saving...but I doubt it.  Gotta have that 5 bedroom, 2 car garage house, with two cars and 3 kids...as well as keeping up with the neighbors and their new ____.  The only winner when credit is involved, is the banks....oh wait...seems like there are no winners in the end!  Fractional reserve banking is a shoddy deal, through and through.  Thanks, Wilson, for signing that into effect.  Considering that banks are the major supplier of "money", as opposed to the government , they need some serious regulations.
Monetary Policy reform, please.

[Thought]

I see you are quite an optimist, Thought.

Not an optimist, a pragmatist. Every time someone somewhere says that the economy is doing poorly, they are making the economy suffer. As I said, as long as we aren't hypochondriacs, the economy will recover, and quite nicely too. But with every person who says we are heading toward a depression, for every newspaper article printed lamenting the decline of the stock market, they aren't merely reporting reality; they are creating reality.

If we're going to make Tlön a reality, we might as well make it a reality we like. Optimism is merely the result of trying to make Tlön a place that doesn't suck. Pessimism is the result of making Tlön a horrible place to live. Either way, we're going to live there. You call me an optimist? That is true to the exact extent that you are a sadomasochist

To be fair, that is a little simplistic of me; there are other influences on the economy besides just people’s perceptions. However, perception is by far the most powerful one. Get that right and you’ll have an invincible economy.

[placidchap]

The truth hurts.  Billions of electronic dollars are being written off because of poor lending practices and poor habits on those who want the credit.  While what you say is true, the principles behind the current state of affairs will not disappear by saying "its not so bad, there won't be a depression!".  People should worry, especially those about to retire with their life savings, which are probably down 10% already.  Maybe the current system based on credit should fail.  Having lending rates of 30 to 1, even 9 to 1 is a poor way to go about business.  Boiled down, anything over the actual funds available is worthless, as that money doesn't even exist.  The banks are the ones creating reality.   They who control the money supply...control Tlön!

[Thought]

They've lost money? Jeeze, they invested really recently then. As long as the money you withdraw from your investment is more than the amount you deposited (accounting for inflation), then you have never lost money (and at least as of yesterday, investments are still worth more than they were 10 years ago). That is one of the things that causes people to panic; they check their investments too often, worrying over every dip and what they've lost, when what they really lost was an imaginary figure. Until they have the money out of the investment and in their hands, it doesn't exist.

Metaphysical economics aside, I'd be surprised if it doesn't get worse than 10% before things start going well again.

But to my point, banks are only creating reality because we let them create reality. If the people believe in their own economy, then it can survive even without banks at all (as economies have done throughout history). But if the people don't believe in their own economy, then it won’t survive regardless of how good the banks are. Banks are a tool to help economies thrive, but they aren't critical. Like He-Man, the people have the power.

“Investors of the World, be optimistic! You have nothing to lose but your chains!”

Or is that, you have nothing to lose but your spare change...

Anywho. It isn't that poor lending practices and poor habits are a good thing, rather first things must be first. If second things are first, then we'll lose everything. We must first have confidence in our economy, we must be optimistic about it. Once that is taken care of, then we can go about reforming the economy to be deserving of that confidence and optimism.

... crap, I'm presenting economics as some sort of mystery cult, aren't I?

[placidchap]

They've lost money? Jeeze, they invested really recently then. As long as the money you withdraw from your investment is more than the amount you deposited (accounting for inflation), then you have never lost money (and at least as of yesterday, investments are still worth more than they were 10 years ago). That is one of the things that causes people to panic; they check their investments too often, worrying over every dip and what they've lost, when what they really lost was an imaginary figure. Until they have the money out of the investment and in their hands, it doesn't exist. 
Metaphysical economics aside, I'd be surprised if it doesn't get worse than 10% before things start going well again.

Well I didn't say they 'lost money', just that their investments are down, which could lead to hard times for some individuals.  But either way, that imaginary number translates to payment for real living expenses and if you are lucky and have some left over, recreational activities.  A little number crunching and you would need, at a 3.5% investment rate, $568,496.13 invested today to have a yearly income of $40,000, for 20 years.  I used 3.5% as those who are retiring are not looking for growth but the least risk possible equating to the low interest rate.  Of course that doesn't account for inflation...add that into the mix and you need a few 100k more for the same.  Now a 10% hit on their investments would knock that 40k a year for 20 years to 40k a year for 17 years or 36k for 20 years, not to mention the tax.  With the way things are going, a 20% drop is also likely, cutting their 20 years in half.  And there is no way to recoup that 20% without major risk.  better hope you have kids (that like you) for a back up plan. Checking the investments often is not a bad thing for people 50+.  Anyone younger should set it and forget it.

The economy needs to suffer for people to realize the problems of current fractional reserve banking system and for wishful thinking, other problems, such as consumerism and capitalism.  When things are all gravy, no one gives a hoot.  Hit them where it hurts, the pocketbook, and now you have some attention.  Although, hopefully it doesn't just deteriorate into a finger pointing blame game, with no one taking responsibility, then nothing would get fixed. 

And since your posting it has definitely gotten worse and will continue to do so.

[Boo the Gentleman Caller]

Ironic, placidchap, that I just read this and I posted a similar thought in another thread.

[Thought]

The economy needs to suffer for people to realize the problems of current fractional reserve banking system and for wishful thinking, other problems, such as consumerism and capitalism.  When things are all gravy, no one gives a hoot.  Hit them where it hurts, the pocketbook, and now you have some attention.  Although, hopefully it doesn't just deteriorate into a finger pointing blame game, with no one taking responsibility, then nothing would get fixed.

The economy needs to suffer? While that would get people motivated to fix things and prevent this from happening again, the effect would be ultimately short lived. Pavlovian techniques like that only work on an individual level, where the solution we need must span the civilization itself. A suffering economy will make the current generation cautious in the future, but as soon as a new generation comes to power (one that didn't suffer through this crises), crises will loom again.

Since you are advocating pavlovian solutions, allow me to compare civilization to a dog. You can beat a dog, make it suffer, and it will learn to avoid the actions that prompt suffering. But that will have no effect on that dog's puppies. They won’t have felt the pain of the parent, so by your method, they'd have to be beaten into submission again, as would this puppies, and so on. Each generation would need its own economic crises so it too could suffer and realize the problems of the fractional reserve banking system, wishful thinking, consumerism, capitalism, and so forth.

The economy does not need to suffer. To avoid economic crises, we must go beyond economics and attack a key flaw in humanity: moderno-centrism. People of the "modern day" (regardless of if it is today, the 1930's, or the 2080's) always assume that they are so smart, so good, and so progressive that they obviously wouldn't make the same mistakes that people so long ago did. The problem is, we humans aren't different today than we were in the past. We are just as dumb, but we are also just as smart. We are just as gullible, but we are also just as shrewd. It is because of this that we can then learn from the past and see how old problems crop up again and again, and how old solutions can be revitalized to protect ourselves anew.

The economy doesn't need to suffer, people need to become obsessed with history. Returning to training a dog, you'll have far more success if you use painless and peaceful techniques. Sure, just like inflicting pain and suffering, you'll have to re-teach every generation, but not every generation will need to suffer. In short (yeah, this was hardly short), if you get people to think properly, to imagine the Tlon that we want to live in, in all regards, then you'll have done more than you ever could with a suffering economy and punitive solutions.

And since your posting it has definitely gotten worse and will continue to do so.

Metaphysical economics aside, I'd be surprised if it doesn't get worse than 10% before things start going well again.

Thank you, you may call me the Great Swami Thought!
For my next prediction... ... government action directed towards stopping the economic decline will be largely ineffective and it will only rebound once people start believing in the economy again.

Thus, we as a people have the power to turn the world economy around right now, this very day. If only we weren't bound hand and mind by fear of what we think is reality, we could make reality what we think it should be. That doesn’t mean that change to the structures isn’t necessary, just that right thought must precede right action.

[placidchap]

Well I have to agree with most of what you said.  Which is why I believe the economy needs to hurt, now.  If the economy suffers now and as a result, we suffer, we can try to change things for the better now.  So when the next generation comes around and hasn't felt the pain of the previous, the likelyhood of them falling into the same pitfalls is lessened, they will have different problems to deal with.

[maggiekarp]

Voting for Obama. If he doesn't win I'm gonna be terribly disillusioned.

[KebreI]

During the last debate I decided to go down to the lobby and watch it with everyone else as opposed to my room. I must say it was quite disgusting every body sat and very attentively watch Obama and the just talked or got up and walked to the kitchen during McCain, then proceeded to claim that Obama was FAR superior in every one of the topics when they paid little to no attention to McCain.