Author Topic: Armchair Economists, Unite!  (Read 13017 times)

Truthordeal

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2009, 12:09:25 am »
J, I, of course, disagree with your reading of the economy. But rather than wasting your and, more importantly, my time by going at it point for point, I'll take a more broad approach and post a link about business cycles. The reason this one hurts more than normal is because so much crashed at the same time: namely, the housing market, auto industry and financial industry.

And no, the crash of the financial industry was not due to "robber barrons." It was caused by jackasses like Barney Frank and Hank Paulson who deliberately lied to Congress about the health of the financial institutions.

Also, because this point needs addressing, you will see a loss of liberal seats in the Senate and House over the next 8 years. I say 8 years because I'm predicting Obama wins reelection in 2012. He'd have to screw up big time in order not to. The party in power loses seats, almost always. I think either Carter or Bush the Elder managed to keep Republican seats, but that was a sheer fluke.

The amazing thing about the American voter is that it is very predictable. No party has stayed in power for longer than 12 years at a time since FDR and Truman, and chances are, that won't change for Obama and the Democrats this time either, especially how Obama's first term has started.

Lord J Esq

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2009, 01:35:31 am »
Truthordeal, look at how much of what you are saying is not the product of your own thought process, but simply a repetition of talking points told to you by others. Are you so obtuse that you would pass these off as your own thoughts? I can't believe that you're trying to fool anyone, which leaves only the possibility that you don't realize that your brain is switched off.

J, I, of course, disagree with your reading of the economy. But rather than wasting your and, more importantly, my time by going at it point for point, I'll take a more broad approach and post a link about business cycles. The reason this one hurts more than normal is because so much crashed at the same time: namely, the housing market, auto industry and financial industry.

You make it sound as if all of these things happened independently of one another. Is that what you think?

And no, the crash of the financial industry was not due to "robber barrons."

I'd be prepared to concede that it's a rather generic term for the many kinds of misbehavior that went on in our financial sector, but you seem to use it like garlic as if to ward off the realities of what has happened. Are you denying that the myriads of well-documented abuses actually occurred? I'm not sure...it seems as though you haven't actually given any thought as to how the financial sector came to the brink. Your entire rebuttal consists of your unsupported disagreement with my earlier post, and then just one sentence of explanation:

It was caused by jackasses like Barney Frank and Hank Paulson who deliberately lied to Congress about the health of the financial institutions.

Are you serious? So, in bizzaro-world, this entire fiasco happened because the Bush Treasury Secretary and a Democratic Representative (who had been in charge of the House Financial Services Committee for barely eighteen months!) both lied to Congress about "the health of the financial institutions," and then Congress, as a result of being lied to, either did or did not do something which single-handedly came within a hair's breadth of collapsing the global economy.

Yet, in your zeal to lay all the blame at the feet of two people (who had very little to do with it), you yourself implicitly concede that there was already some kind of problem. With these two people supposedly lying about "the health of the financial institutions," there must have already been some kind of problem with the financial institutions, yes? But you completely ignore that, in favor of your bizarre, right-wing talking point. Remember when Homer Simpson said "It takes two to lie: One to lie and one to listen"? Yeah, well, you're doing the same thing here. You're saying that Paulson and Frank caused the financial crisis because they didn't tell Congress about the financial crisis. (Incidentally, Barney Frank is a Member of Congress. That seems to have escaped you...)

I think either Carter or Bush the Elder managed to keep Republican seats, but that was a sheer fluke.

Jimmy Carter was not a Republican, and both Carter and Bush Sr. suffered partisan losses in Congress during their respective elections of 1978 and 1990. You could not have gotten your statement more wrong if you had tried (except, I suppose, if you had called Bush Sr. a Democrat). So, this "sheer fluke" which you have declared on your own expert authority, never even happened. I won't even bother asking what compelled you to designate these events "sheer fluke."

No party has stayed in power for longer than 12 years at a time since FDR and Truman...

Okay, you got this one right, but sharing incidental trivia is not going to help you to get your economic arguments taken seriously.

Truthordeal

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2009, 02:36:41 am »
 :roll:

Quote from: Lord J
You make it sound as if all of these things happened independently of one another. Is that what you think?

Yes and no. Sure, all three were interconnected to some degree, and each effected each other in a macroeconomic sense, but when you look at the history, you'll see what specific factors caused each one's downfall.

-The Auto Industry took it hard up the tailpipe(lol, pun) because of inflated union contracts and $4 per gallon gas causing people to a) not buy new cars, b) buy more fuel efficient cars, typically Japanese or European(Which is why BMW and Honda didn't get hit so bad) and c) sell their cars in lieu of bikes.

-The financial industry's crash is blamed on two things by economists: Bush de-regulation, and the Community Reinvestment Act. Bush de-regulation is a vague topic, and that's your area, so you can have it. The CRA, however, led to such great practices as: Over-spending of banks, predatory lending, credit to people who couldn't use it, and debt.

-The housing crisis boomed for almost 20 years thanks to the CRA(this is what made the 90's a very happy time, economically), which is why it hit hard when it did. Inflation of housing costs, I'm sure we've all heard about the "bubble," yada yada yada. If the crashes of the housing markets came regularly, it wouldn't have had such a profound effect as it did this time.

Typically in an economic downturn, one or two things go bad. In this one, we had three, so it hit us harder. It was not, however, the worst since the Great Depression, and did not need all of the unnecessary spending that happened under Bush and Obama.

Quote from: Lord J
You're saying that Paulson and Frank caused the financial crisis because they didn't tell Congress about the financial crisis. (Incidentally, Barney Frank is a Member of Congress. That seems to have escaped you...)

Since you're protective of Barney Frank and I know I'll make no headway there even if I tried, I'll focus on Paulson, a guy we both probably despise.

Paulson has been with Bush since Summer 2006. The poop hit the fan around Mid-to-Late-Summer 2008. You don't think that in those two years, Paulson had some little inkling that Mac and Mae, AIG and the rest of them would get donkey-punched they way they did? We can't expect the Treasury Secretary to notice these types of economic indicators? Also, since he's the Treasury Secretary, one would think he'd know a way to fix it, or at least some idea.

Yet he chose to do nothing. Either he saw it, lied about everything being peachy, or didn't, and was incompetent.

Either way, I have no use for him.

Quote from: Lord J
So, this "sheer fluke" which you have declared on your own expert authority, never even happened. I won't even bother asking what compelled you to designate these events "sheer fluke."

I got the dates wrong. It was Bill Clinton in 1998 and Bush the Younger in 2002. Oh well.

Quote from: Lord J
Okay, you got this one right, but sharing incidental trivia is not going to help you to get your economic arguments taken seriously.

No, but this should say something about the power-struggles going on in Congress and the Presidency. With the election of Barack Obama, the people didn't suddenly open their eyes and realize "Oh! Liberalism's where its at! It as all the right answers!" It was more of Obama's campaign that "John McCain=George Bush," and Bush's last two years in office that did it.

All I've heard since November 5th was "America's Woken Up! Liberalism Forever!" but you and I, or at least yourself, as I'm sure you have Oh So Much faith in my ability to think, know that this isn't how politics works. People generally have an attention span of about 8 years, they might go for a third term for one party if that year was good for them, but generally not.

I'll agree that this election was a bit of a watershed. That might extend the liberal reign for 4-8 years, if history's any indicator, but its not some sudden Ayn Randian movement.

But J, if you would pay attention to the nation you would see that people are pissed off with the state of the world. This may not be the Democrats' fault, and it may not be the liberals' fault, but they are going to be the ones that get shafted come 2010 because they are the ones in power. You may see them as ignorant sheep, but these are the American voters. Their will be done!

My entire point is that even if you are right, the liberal movement will take quite a few hits over the next 8-12 years and whatever grandiose plans you have, you're not gonna get through unless you warm the conservatives up to it. The Democrats know this, and this is why they're not passing the climate or healthcare bills that they want so much.

This isn't speculation or theory, this is history!
« Last Edit: October 07, 2009, 02:06:30 pm by Truthordeal »

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2009, 04:33:14 pm »
If BMWs were economy cars, I would cheer for the economy and weep for the environment.

GenesisOne

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2009, 05:08:18 pm »

Anyone here seen Capitalism: A Love Story yet?

I've yet to, but the trailer shows a lot of promise for exposure and muck-raking.

Lord J Esq

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2009, 08:55:41 pm »
Since Truthordeal is so upset that engaging with me involves massive amounts of reading that consists mostly of insults, I figured it would be a waste for me to delete my abortive reply to him. This is unfinished and unedited, so expect abrupt shifts, inconsistencies, and a sudden end. Still, I think it would be a good object lesson to pour even this much cold water on his smug little mug. This was going to be a fully-referenced argument, which is why it was taking me so long, even though only a couple of links are in the present version. Consider it a hint of what we might see more of in an intellectual conversation, if we are more concerned about understanding and progress than we are about debate itself.


:roll:

I would love to sit you down with an older friend of mine to talk about this. If your eyes were still rolling after a chat with him, it would only be because your entire head was rolling.

But, alas, he's not here, so I am left to my own recourse...

Yes and no. Sure, all three were interconnected to some degree, and each effected each other in a macroeconomic sense, but when you look at the history, you'll see what specific factors caused each one's downfall.

When I “look at the history,” I see something different than what you see. And I would bet that I have looked at more of “the history” than you have. When you use rhetoric like this, you have to know what you're doing. To imply that I am disagreeing with you because I am not as well-versed in the subject as you are...is foolish to put it mildly.

-The Auto Industry took it hard up the tailpipe(lol, pun) because of inflated union contracts and $4 per gallon gas causing people to a) not buy new cars, b) buy more fuel efficient cars, typically Japanese or European(Which is why BMW and Honda didn't get hit so bad) and c) sell their cars in lieu of bikes.

Eh, this is the closest you come in your entire argument to making a legitimate point, so I'll give you some small credit to balance out the massive criticism which lies ahead. Having said that, the auto industry failed not because of what you describe, but for other reasons. In decreasing order of importance, here they are:

Number one, the most important one, is that automobiles have become increasingly necessary and disposable over time. The necessity component is a cunning beast indeed, because the industry itself has helped to breed this necessity: Automobiles have promoted sprawl and discouraged mass transit, making automobiles all the more necessary to own. Today there are at least half as many automobiles in America as there are people. Necessity by itself didn't cause the industry's collapse, but, when combined with disposability, the system became unsustainable. This goes all the way back to the Model-T, when Ford realized that he could make a killing by marketing a car as something which, for reasons of fashion, comfort, and safety, needs to be replaced every five years or so. It really got bad, though, in the 1960s, '70s, and '80s, when per capita car ownership rates soared. Notice that they have come down since then, since their peak in the Reagan era. In retrospect, this was one of the early signs of the unsustainability of our consumerist economic model.

A good automobile will last for hundreds of thousands of miles—many years—with proper maintenance. It should not be replaced every five years for non-utilitarian reasons, and yet that is what people have still been doing...today more so than ever. The reason that the per capita ownership rate is lower while new car sales and leases are up is that the drop-off has been confined to used cars. The problem here is that new cars are not cheap. When people keep buying them and buying them and buying them, that's money they're not spending on other purchases. Now, as income stagnation enters its third decade for most Americans and other economic pressures mount simultaneously, people are finding that they don't have as much money to spare on cars. But because of the cultural expectation that you have to keep replacing your car, which has been fed by enormous quantities of automobile advertising and a lingering social competition to “keep up with the Joneses,” people are not yet deciding to stop buying new cars. They want to go on buying new cars, and, so far, they have been able to do so. Instead of cutting back on the number of new car purchases, they're looking for bargains on their new cars. Thus, what they're not buying is American automobiles, since foreign imports (mainly from Japan) offer better economy, functionality, and reliability—better bargains. This would be true even absent the other economic realities which have worked against domestic manufacturers.

Essentially, Americans are addicted to new cars and the Japanese have a cheaper fix. This alone would have doomed the automobile manufacturers eventually, all else being equal.

Number two, and nearly as important as reason number one, is that the domestic automobile industry is poorly organized.

Number three, and nearly as important as reason number two, is that the domestic manufacturers have been devastated by legacy retirement costs. I can usually tell the difference between a dittohead conservative and what would pass for an intellectual conservative when I ask them this question: What role did the unions play in creating the present-day troubles for our automakers? If the person starts talking about rubber rooms and $70-an-hour wages, I know that they don't know what they're talking about. If, on the other hand, they start to say that it all goes back to the collective bargaining battles of yore, I can appreciate that at least they are modestly well-informed. It was a devil's bargain made back in the 1960s and 1970s. Here is what happened: The unions said: “Give us a fair wage.” The management said: “Well, we won't do that, but we'll give you good retirement packages.” The unions said: “Okay.”

They should never have agreed to it, and the companies should never, ever have made those offers, because, absent a national healthcare system, those deals were a time bomb that would eventually ravage the industry. (The same thing has been happening in other industries, but other industries don't usually make the news. The automakers make the news because their activity is a major segment of the American economy. It's an unsustainable segment, due to the artificially inflated demand as laid out in reason number one, but it's a segment nonetheless.)

Management could have paid its workers a fair wage right then and there and been done with it, but instead these companies got stuck with fixed retirement costs spiraling out of control, due, mainly, to the nation's inoperative healthcare system. Essentially what they did was shift tens of billions of dollars of costs into the future, but those tens of billions morphed into hundreds of billions because of factors outside the industry's control. Oh, but not entirely outside the industry's control: You see, the automakers were some of the biggest opponents to healthcare reform back in the 1970s and 1990s. They had two big chances to escape their fate, and they deliberately rejected both—acting out of the sheer denial that follows irredeemable greed. I think Daniel Krispin could write a good tale of tragedy here; it's reminiscent of his beloved ancient Greece.

As with reason number one, this alone would have destroyed the domestic automobile industry eventually.

Number four, and the last of the huge ones, the reasons that could have destroyed the automobile industry alone, has little to do with the automobile industry. This would be the stagnation of American incomes. Due in part to a retreat from the massive industrial output of the postwar era, and due primarily to conservative economic policies dating as far back as the Reagan administration, most Americans earn the same amount of money today—after adjusting for inflation, and disaggregating the top income braket, and accounting for the entry of more females into the workforce—that they did in the 1970s.

If earnings had not leveled off in the 1970s, American incomes today might be double what they actually are. If we were all making twice as much, the domestic automobile industry would be just fine. Instead, that money has been shifted to the top by the robber barons (which is why I use that term). The economy itself has grown considerably since the 1970s, and you can see this somewhat in the non-disaggregated per capita income figures.

Number five is the decision that domestic automobile manufacturers made to focus on selling big cars, and the subsequent spike in fuel prices. This is a classic example of a major strategic failure in business. If you bet the farm on selling igloos in Montana in February, you're gonna be out of a farm sometime come April. For years, American cars had been getting bigger, more expensive, and oftentimes less fuel-efficient, even as materials and fuel were becoming more constrained in supply and American incomes remained stagnant.

Number six is the spike in gasoline prices. That was the event which finally broke the industry's back. After willfully promoting the biggest, baddest cars on the block, those same vehicles became financial black holes when gas prices doubled and then trebled. All of a sudden, that daily 70-mile commute was costing twenty bucks, or thirty. That's a quarter of some people's entire income, on gasoline only. Car sales of the most lucrative brands plummeted, and buyers fled to the cheaper, more fuel-efficient automobiles of Japan. The few domestic models which offered fuel economy also saw sales booms, but the Big Three had intentionally whittled those vehicles down to a niche market in favor of their SUVs, pickup trucks, and full-size sedans. It was about the time that the Big Three started talking about hybrid SUVs that we all recognized the situation was hopeless, and from there it was only a matter of “How long will it take the industry to go bankrupt?”

Gasoline prices, however, were a trigger, not a cause. Absent the artificially large demand curve for new cars and the crippling retirement costs, gasoline prices would not have caused the industry's collapse.




-The financial industry's crash is blamed on two things by economists: Bush de-regulation, and the Community Reinvestment Act. Bush de-regulation is a vague topic, and that's your area, so you can have it. The CRA, however, led to such great practices as: Over-spending of banks, predatory lending, credit to people who couldn't use it, and debt.

-The housing crisis boomed for almost 20 years thanks to the CRA(this is what made the 90's a very happy time, economically), which is why it hit hard when it did. Inflation of housing costs, I'm sure we've all heard about the "bubble," yada yada yada. If the crashes of the housing markets came regularly, it wouldn't have had such a profound effect as it did this time.

Typically in an economic downturn, one or two things go bad. In this one, we had three, so it hit us harder. It was not, however, the worst since the Great Depression, and did not need all of the unnecessary spending that happened under Bush and Obama.

Quote from: Lord J
You're saying that Paulson and Frank caused the financial crisis because they didn't tell Congress about the financial crisis. (Incidentally, Barney Frank is a Member of Congress. That seems to have escaped you...)

Since you're protective of Barney Frank and I know I'll make no headway there even if I tried, I'll focus on Paulson, a guy we both probably despise.

Paulson has been with Bush since Summer 2006. The poop hit the fan around Mid-to-Late-Summer 2008. You don't think that in those two years, Paulson had some little inkling that Mac and Mae, AIG and the rest of them would get donkey-punched they way they did? We can't expect the Treasury Secretary to notice these types of economic indicators? Also, since he's the Treasury Secretary, one would think he'd know a way to fix it, or at least some idea.

Yet he chose to do nothing. Either he saw it, lied about everything being peachy, or didn't, and was incompetent.

Either way, I have no use for him.

Quote from: Lord J
So, this "sheer fluke" which you have declared on your own expert authority, never even happened. I won't even bother asking what compelled you to designate these events "sheer fluke."

I got the dates wrong. It was Bill Clinton in 1998 and Bush the Younger in 2002. Oh well.

Quote from: Lord J
Okay, you got this one right, but sharing incidental trivia is not going to help you to get your economic arguments taken seriously.

No, but this should say something about the power-struggles going on in Congress and the Presidency. With the election of Barack Obama, the people didn't suddenly open their eyes and realize "Oh! Liberalism's where its at! It as all the right answers!" It was more of Obama's campaign that "John McCain=George Bush," and Bush's last two years in office that did it.

All I've heard since November 5th was "America's Woken Up! Liberalism Forever!" but you and I, or at least yourself, as I'm sure you have Oh So Much faith in my ability to think, know that this isn't how politics works. People generally have an attention span of about 8 years, they might go for a third term for one party if that year was good for them, but generally not.

I'll agree that this election was a bit of a watershed. That might extend the liberal reign for 4-8 years, if history's any indicator, but its not some sudden Ayn Randian movement.

But J, if you would pay attention to the nation you would see that people are pissed off with the state of the world. This may not be the Democrats' fault, and it may not be the liberals' fault, but they are going to be the ones that get shafted come 2010 because they are the ones in power. You may see them as ignorant sheep, but these are the American voters. Their will be done!

My entire point is that even if you are right, the liberal movement will take quite a few hits over the next 8-12 years and whatever grandiose plans you have, you're not gonna get through unless you warm the conservatives up to it. The Democrats know this, and this is why they're not passing the climate or healthcare bills that they want so much.

This isn't speculation or theory, this is history!

FaustWolf

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2009, 12:41:27 am »
If anyone else is a doomer like me when it comes to the economy, you'll probably appreciate Robert Reich's blog. I find it kind of refreshing in a really sick, morbid way.

I have to give the economy some credit, I thought for sure we'd have seen the second dip in the forecast "double dip" recession by now. I think it's still on its way; hopefully I'll be proven wrong, because you can just imagine how the media will play it up and cause never-before-seen levels of economic panic. So much of the economy really does depend on our "animal spirits," as Keynes put it. That's why every US President has no choice but to say we're on our way up, and I suspect many economists feel forced to be optimists for the same reason. Maybe.

Just found the site http://www.tutor.com/ in case anyone here is desperate for work but has a high academic record in one or more of the areas they're looking for and access to high speed Internet. This is the first place I'll go if I find myself with a Master's in Economics but no job or paid internship if it's still around, that's for sure. At $10/hr it probably isn't for everyone, but as they say, every little bit helps.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2009, 01:01:05 am by FaustWolf »

FaustWolf

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2009, 03:45:32 pm »
Well, that was interesting timing on my part. According to the latest US jobs report released this morning, the unemployment rate in the US actually fell from 10.2% to 10.0% in November. Economists had expected a loss of 130,000 jobs from the numbers I was reading, whereas in reality that loss ended up being only 11,000. That's a pretty good, er, downtick in losses. I haven't looked at the Bureau of Labor Stats yet for the specifics, but I suspect temporary holiday cashier work and the like is at play. Not that that's a bad thing, but those jobs are likely to be shed in January and February, which is precisely when economists were expecting positive job growth to start.

But wait! Help me out here...the economy lost a net total of 11,000 jobs and yet unemployment decreased? Like, isn't unemployment supposed to decrease when we have a net gain in jobs?

It's not fuzzy math at all, but perfectly plausible within what I feel is the incredibly archaic system of macroeconomic monitoring we have in the United States. The most widely cited figure (the "unemployment rate") is typically calculated by dividing the number of people looking for work by the size of the total labor force. Thus, you can have a decrease in the unemployment rate from either of two things:

1. A net creation of jobs.
2. A decrease in the total labor force (via people returning to education, starting up their own local drug trafficking ring, or simply sitting at home discouraged).

Despite the officially reported net loss of 11,000 jobs in November, it is possible that the US economy experienced net job growth -- those jobs would have to have been untraceable from the viewpoint of government monitoring agencies, that's all. Maybe a ton of people were contracted to paint people's houses, fix people's computers, and do tutoring work and paid under the table. The unemployment rate calculations drawing from a survey of households and the jobs numbers drawing from business reports, this seems entirely plausible.

I would tend to place the greater weight on the second phenomenon mentioned above, but the news article is extremely fuzzy here; I'll have to scramble together some time to look at the actual reports to see what's going on with discouraged workers and the long-term unemployed, and how these categories of people are being treated in the numbers.

Another possibility is that the .2% fall in the unemployment rate stems from revisions of previously issued economic data; job loss numbers for September and October were revised downward. Translation: things weren't quite as bad as we reported the first time around. Ah, our tax dollars at work. A better communication infrastructure linking the labor force to economic monitoring agencies would be a worthwhile investment IMO, but would probably require at least a 56k modem in every household to facilitate reporting.


In any case, the likelihood of a double dip recession has decreased substantially -- though when I say that, I mean I predict the stock market is likely pretty safe going forward, while the struggles of the much beleaguered "Main Street" are likely to be forgotten as they were following the 2001 recession. This won't be President Obama's fault, but the fault of the general attitude prevailing in the economist community, and which likely prevails among most of his economic team. If there's ever been a president capable of wading through all that and actually fixing things it's Obama, and I'll be extremely impressed if he manages to do that. But I'm not holding my breath, because I don't think he's getting the kind of advice he should be getting at this point.

The only thing I can think of that could cause a true "double dip" now is the sudden shedding of all those jobs gained in November right at the January/February mark, which is precisely where most economists have been predicting positive job growth. While it might seem very likely that we're going to see a huge shedding of service sector work after the holidays, the government will probably compensate. For all the criticism the Obama Administration's been getting over the stimulus (it's always either "too much" or "too little spending") I have to give them huge credit for the slow-release economic medication it represents. According to a Congressional Budget Office report approximately 3/4 of the stimulus funds are still sitting in reserve, waiting to be spent. That means the government will be providing a Keynesian buffer to mask private sector weakness for some time. Republicans might complain bitterly, but Wall Street's going to love this.

This is looking more and more like the 2001~2003 "recovery" to me since I've thought about it further. Maybe there will be a recovery on paper and in the stock market, but the kind of jobs created will be far wage-inferior to the jobs lost; consider wage competition among our huge reserve force of talented labor. With economic growth happening but remaining anemic, the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates at rock bottom for the foreseeable future, forcing desperate investors looking for higher returns right back into risky ventures. Maybe not subprime mortgages this time around, but perhaps something like lending clubs and new debt instruments the financial industry might come up with as more and more people try to pay down accumulated credit card debt with their meager wages, or sink into debt thanks to their meager wages.

If it happens, the next depression in the US won't be a sudden bottom-falling-out; it's going to be the result of a slow erosion of this economy's fundamentals that still goes completely unnoticed by mainstream economists who rejoice over raw jobs numbers without looking at job quality and financial pressures crushing the median household. I see the 2008 recession as inextricably linked to the 2001 recession, and to trends that began all the way back in the 1990s. The next recession may be too far off to be properly called a "double-dip" but if the period between recessions decreases in length, we'll eventually get to that point. Whatever happens, it's becoming a morbidly fun ride for those interested in the study of economics.

EDIT: The actual jobs report is here for those curious.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
« Last Edit: December 04, 2009, 04:21:33 pm by FaustWolf »

GenesisOne

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2009, 05:48:38 pm »

I only know so much about the terrible state of the U.S. economy as to provide meaningful, legitimate, and proven points of concern.  It boils down to these questions I had which (one way or the other) would affect the U.S. economy.  Hopefully, for the better.

Business and Domestic
1. Should the government abolish Minimum Wage?
2. Should the government impose a "Windfall Tax" on the excess profits of oil companies?
3. Should the government replace Income Tax with a National Sales Tax (aka "Fair Tax")?

Educational
1. Should the government abolish Affirmative Action?
2. Should the government provide vouchers for private schools?
3. Should the states require K-12 students to complete Minimum Skills Tests?

If anyone would be willing to engage in a wholesome, scholarly discussion about these questions I had, it would ease my concerns (not so much that I'm losing sleep over it).

FaustWolf

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #24 on: December 06, 2009, 07:28:00 pm »
These are tough questions -- not tough for a pure liberal or for a pure conservative perhaps, but definitely so for me, because I have liberal leanings and yet I've found a very laissez faire attitude in economic academia from what I've experienced of it. The exception is Federal Reserve monetary policy, which is fairly celebrated in most courses I've taken (though labeled completely ineffectual in the long run). Thus, as you read what follows, bear in mind that these are the words of a self-described progressive interpreting traditional economic theory through the lense of "progressive" values.

With regard to questions 1 and 2 under Business and Domestic, I'll have to go with: "If men were angels, no government would be necessary." We might not have needed a minimum wage at all were every 19th and early 20th century industrialist like Henry Ford -- who viewed workers as something to compete for rather than something to pit against itself, to divide and conquer in a race to the bottom and thus acquire cheaply. But minimum wage being the pittance that it is nowadays, I think the conversation needs to be geared more toward whether we should promote a "living wage," and how to best accomplish that. I would argue that the minimum wage (currently $7.25/hour) is so paltry that it doesn't affect the fluidity of market operation as much as it's given credit for. A way for liberal politicians to say, "Hey! We did something concrete!" without really getting at the heart of economic challenges we're facing.

With regard to windfall taxation on oil companies specifically, consider that the major rationale for the existence of economic profit is to attract more firms into an industry, so that competition will force prices down to their marginal cost in a "perfect" market. When there are barriers to entry of new firms (and I imagine they are significant in the oil exploration business), profit loses some of its economic meaning because new firms can't rush in to steal the profits away.

Profits are meant to be stolen away from those who enjoy them; if they're not, the market could very well be functioning inefficiently. This is the counterintuitive nature of economics, and it's where liberals could gain huge ground if they'd harp on this more IMO. We're literally taught this in Microeconomic Theory; this concept is well accepted.

So, an oil company earning positive profits in the long run could very well be a sign of economic inefficiency, rather than economic efficiency. If several oil companies are reliably earning positive profits in the long run it most definitely is a sign of inefficiency. Anything beyond worker and entrepreneur compensation* (and I would add R&D and re-investment in new equipment) is supposed to be stolen away anyway in a perfectly functioning market. Those dollars need to be used elsewhere -- where they should be reinvested in the economy is the million (or perhaps billion) dollar question.

*We would measure the entrepreneur's "fair," or "zero economic profit" level of compensation as the next best alternative wage he or she could have made if he or she were not in the present line of business.


If we assume that profits are meant to be captured by third parties -- which I think is perfectly in line with all basic economic theory I've been exposed to -- then we can turn to the question of whether government should do the capturing. I don't think we liberals should answer the question so willy-nilly; it really depends on whether the profits are already being reinvested efficiently elsewhere in the economy, whether we as a society are getting the most bang for the entrepreneur's extra buck. It depends on what uses of money we value as a people. If oil companies are donating all their extra profits to charities that feed the poor, I say let them continue untaxed. But if oil industry execs are relishing in private jets and mansions and other amenities and I think the money would be better used elsewhere, I'll advocate taxing it away.

That's the real use of government intervention IMO -- to solve real economic inefficiencies, according to our societal definition of economic inefficiency. I think we need to have a real national conversation about these issues; if government is taxing profit and spending those captured profits in inefficient ways (the popular "bridge to nowhere"), government is just as culpable for inefficiency as the free market is. The advantage government has over the free market is that it actually has a brain -- but the functioning of that brain depends on how much oversight we the people are willing to give it. Too often we look at voting as a chore, and too often the mechanisms of government and the media allow severely imperfect communication of the people's aggregate wants. I welcome the advent of a true Internet-enabled popular sovereignty when it comes to economic issues especially.

I think that'll be all from me for now. I want to eventually address the other questions after I've had time to give them some thought.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2009, 07:44:05 pm by FaustWolf »

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #25 on: December 06, 2009, 11:47:56 pm »
You can probably predict my answers on most of these questions, so I'll focus more on the supporting explanations.

Business and Domestic
1. Should the government abolish Minimum Wage?

The minimum wage is a welfare tool. If it were abolished, the poverty rate would increase considerably. That much is indisputable: The free market drives wages down to the lowest competitive rate, and large corporations (which are in many ways independent of the free market) collude to achieve the same result or worse.

The theoretical trade-off is that there would also be a possibility of greater economic expansion, at least in the short term, since the money not paid to workers could potentially be used as capital instead. In practice, however, not only does that inherently not work (because the cost of living increases when the economy expands), but most of the time it isn't even an issue, because most of this money is not used as capital. It goes into the hands of the shareholders and executives, who invest it for the enrichment of themselves and anyone else who can competently play the markets. When that's where the money goes, the free market's pressures on labor costs are a form of wealth redistribution from the lower to the upper classes. It is hard to overstate how destabilizing that is to a society. Lesser societies have crumbled under that kind of stress.

The simple reality is that this short-term trade-off does not live up to its theoretical potential. This aspect of economic conservatism is simply wrong, flat out. The economy grows both more and more healthily when the lower income brackets are upwardly mobile, and the minimum wage is a net positive influence on upward mobility, especially to the working class. Abolishing it would profit a few, but it would harm the economy as a whole.

Let's remember, also, just what kind of a minimum wage we're talking about. It's true that many people who earn the minimum wage today would earn considerably less were it abolished (although this would be offset somewhat by state minimum wage laws in most states, which are separate from the federal minimum wage, which I presume is what you were talking about). However, already, the minimum wage is not a "livable" wage, meaning that someone working full-time on the federal minimum wage would currently gross $14,500 a year. The federal poverty threshold, meanwhile, for a two-person family is $14,570 a year. In a legitimate sense, therefore, we can think of the minimum wage as "not existing," because it is low enough that lower wages would mostly be offset by government welfare. The minimum wage in America is not a gold-plated plan. It's not even tin-plated. It's cheap, almost to the point of irrelevancy. (Until Democrats raised the federal minimum wage a couple of years ago, there was barely a state in the Union that didn't have a higher state minimum wage.) We would have to raise the minimum wage a whole hell of a lot before it were to reach the point where it would be capable of legitimately destabilizing the economy due to downward wealth redistribution. (I'm not actually aware of any country having ever gone broke by being overly generous with its lower class, but it is at least theoretically possible.)

People who can barely afford to live are not going to be spending money to grow the economy: They're paying their rent, their groceries, their phone bill...stuff like that. If you're a company in any other industry, these people don't exist to you. The best you can do is get them to buy your shit on credit, which runs up American consumer debt, which is an economic hazard that benefits almost nobody. You need to understand that rich people are not the only ones who know how to use money. Where economic growth is concerned, it's actually the middle class which supports the economy the most. They're the ones who spend the most money, as a group, on goods and services directly. The upper class spends more per capita, but is much smaller in membership. The lower class is both smaller in overall size and spends less per capita. A weak minimum wage protects the lower class, but a strong minimum wage would empower the middle class, making it far more relevant to the wider economy. In my view, we should raise the minimum wage to a point where everybody who puts in a full day's work is guaranteed to make enough money to be able to spend a little extra cash on luxuries on a regular basis. We should certainly not abolish the minimum wage.

I would add that, at the federal level, the minimum wage should be tied to local cost-of-living figures. $7.25 in Podunk, Mississippi is a livable wage. $7.25 in Seattle would be a joke. (It's not relevant, though, since Washington's minimum wage is higher.) I actually worked for $7.01 in Seattle a few years ago, when the minimum wage here was $7.01. High living it warn't.

Business and Domestic
2. Should the government impose a "Windfall Tax" on the excess profits of oil companies?

In the free market, companies earn very small profits. Those that can differentiate themselves will do a little better. Many others will go out of business. A few will do spectacularly well and earn large profits and grow larger. In an uncompetitive market, profits are much higher because companies use their leverage to raise prices. That much is simple economics. It leads into the question of what to do about corporate profits because it reminds us that profits, in a truly competitive market, are small. Huge profits anywhere are a sign of one of only two things: Either the company making those profits is truly a superior alternative to the competition, or the company is effectively stealing.

Profits themselves can be a good thing; they're a tangible reward in our capitalist system. They're a strong incentive to do business. But they can be, and often are, ill-gotten. Oil companies are an example of an oligopolistic industry where vast amounts of wealth are diverted to the executives and shareholders without commensurate benefit to customers or the economy as a whole. Because of the infrastructure required for an oil company to operate, small businesses have a hard time starting up in this industry. There simply isn't competition. That is reflected in how high on the hog these executives live. Is the work they do really worth the tens of millions of dollars they can earn in a single year? No, it's not. The free market would prove that, if it were able to pressure the industry. But it can't. Only two powers can pressure an oligopolist: conscience, and government.

Once you've all stopped laughing at the thought of these people exercising their conscience by limiting their personal wealth voluntarily...

Government can come in and say "Your profits are the result of an oligopoly. We will allow you to continue to earn large profits, but we will tax them severely so that your success is the nation's success." That is, essentially, a windfall tax: If you make a shitload of pure profits, you will pay a disproportionately higher tax on it. The question of whether a windfall tax is a good thing depends on where that money goes if it is left in the hands of the highly profitable industry, and where it goes if it is taxed by the government. The latter half of the equation depends on your assessment of the value of government spending. The former half requires a "follow-the-money" exercise where you track these private profits to see how they are spent. You're welcome to take such an excursion, but I'll tell you right now that most of that money goes into the markets as investment. This is how a millionaire salary can produce a multi-millionaire or even a billionaire. Some of these people follow the Bill Gates path and make huge charitable contributions. Others don't. They hold onto their money, trying to grow it without actually spending much of it. This is poison for the economy, as these individuals are essentially acting as humongous wealth sinks where wealth goes to disappear. It still shows up in the economic numbers, and certainly in the market numbers, and it still gets taxed to the extent these people can't cheat their way out of paying, but it isn't actually used. It's dormant money. The actual, functional economy is that much smaller. It's like stuffing money under your mattress: It doesn't really exist until you use it. It has potential, and potential has value to the economy, but not usually the parts of the economy that ordinary people interact with on a daily basis. For most of us, a working economy works best when money trades hands. The ultra-rich who do not reintroduce their money into the economy through capital investments or charity are not allowing that money to trade hands. That's a very bad thing. You may be aware that a fraction of the people in this country control the majority of its wealth. An alarming proportion of that wealth, for all intents and purposes, does not exist.

I am in favor of a progressive windfall tax that takes into account the absolute magnitude of a profit, the relative magnitude of a profit with respect to revenues, and the relative magnitude of a profit with respect to previous years (which would protect companies undergoing major growth). In all three cases, the windfall tax would be higher when the profit is that much more out of proportion with other measurements.

Understand that I am a capitalist myself. I don't favor income caps. I don't think a corporation should be told "You are not allowed to make more than X percent profits." I think a corporation should be able to make as much money as it legally can...and then should be taxed to the point of tears. It's profit, so the company is still making money. It's just not making as much money. That's how it should be, because not only is that what the free market would declare, but I also value government spending (economically and socially) above the judgment of the very rich. That's an eminently democratic position, and one that libertarians have a hard time reconciling because of their knee-jerk reaction against government anything.

Business and Domestic
3. Should the government replace Income Tax with a National Sales Tax (aka "Fair Tax")?

Here is something everybody should understand about economics: Not all dollars are equal. Absent welfare and charity, if you don't earn enough dollars to eat, you're dead. If you don't earn enough dollars to put a roof over your head, you're homeless. These dollars in a person's overall income are worth far, far more than the dollars that come after them. Beyond the necessities, there are pseudo-necessities like healthcare and education which one can technically live without, but only at great personal loss. The dollars to pay for these things are worth a lot, but not as much as the dollars to survive. Next, there are material luxury dollars: candy, toys, cars. These dollars make a survivable life enjoyable, and they're worth a lot, but not as much as the ones that precede them. Then there are the wealth-growth dollars, the dollars which enable investment, entrepreneurship, and lavish material luxury. These are also very important. They grow the economy and give ordinary citizens something to aspire toward. Finally there are the "I don't know what to do with this money" dollars. This is when you make so much money you'd have to work hard to spend it all. You can buy your own airplanes, your own islands, yachts, mansions in multiple states. But mostly you invest your money in the markets. That's all there is to do with it, really. This money is not worth very much.

These divisions correspond roughly with the economic classes--the impoverished, the working class, the lower middle class, the upper middle class, and the upper class. But the really interesting thing is how a sales tax and an income tax affect these different levels of dollars.

Sales taxes are disproportionately borne by people who buy stuff. That's partly the working class: they buy food and basic luxuries. In particular, however, it's the lower and upper middle classes. They buy the most stuff, by far, when considered as an economic unit. Their furniture and wild salmon and sailboats and microwaves and big-screen televisions would all be subject to a sales tax. And it hits the lower middle class harder, because they're operating in a lower income range where their available dollars are worth more on average. A sales tax, therefore, is a tax centered on the lower middle class, with significant overspill on the classes directly below and above it. Economically speaking, a sales tax is a strong, stable tax, because the lower middle class is the backbone of the economy. And though a sales tax is highly susceptible to economic downturns, making it undesirable as a sole general revenue source, it is generally one of the two strongest broad-based taxes out there, because in our economy there will always be the sale of goods on a massive scale.

However, this sales tax completely ignores most of the wealth in the country. The upper class, which controls the majority of this country's wealth, spends proportionally next to nothing on sales taxes. Contrast that with a member of the working class, for whom the sales tax on a burger can make the difference between buying it or not. A sales tax fundamentally avoids the money with the least value...and yet it is the money with the least value that should be taxed the most, because it's a lot easier to justify taxing a person's "I think I'll buy a golf course" money than their "I think we'll have steaks this Sunday" money...because, to the individuals, the golf course money is worth a lot less than the steak money, but to the nation as a whole it's all the same: Revenue is revenue. This is why, absent other factors, the cheapest money should always be taxed the hardest while the most critical money should never be taxed at all. Yet a sales tax does indeed reach into the working class and even the poor class. It shouldn't. But how do you control that? The only way to do it is to write a dazzlingly complicated tax code which specifically addresses various classes of goods in various instances. Most sales taxes only address this problem in the most generic sense if they address it at all.

Meanwhile, an income tax can be graduated, which means that tax brackets can be established at which income is charged at different percentages. This is how the federal income tax is currently structured: The first few thousand dollars a person makes are effectively not taxed at all. The next few thousand are taxed at a low rate. The next few thousand are taxed at a slightly higher rate. Check it out.. Note the marginal tax rate in the left column. Note how sharp the increase is at first, from bracket to bracket, and how it levels off in the upper brackets. There are a lot of politics backed into that one little curve. The steepness of the early brackets means that the lower middle classes get taxed pretty hard pretty early. The shallowness of the latter brackets means that the rich get taxes very lightly. This is a bad thing: That curve should be inverted; the lower brackets should be shallow and the upper brackets should be steep, which follows from the premise that low-level dollars are worth more than
high-level dollars.

Thus you can see that the current income tax structure in this country is imbalanced to favor the ultra-wealthy at the expense of the lower middle class. It also indicates that our income tax rates overall are surprisingly low, given what we expect our government to be able to do. Thus, income taxation in America today is in a bad way. But the curious thing is that we could easily fix it: We could change those marginal rates to be more progress--that is, to tax higher dollars at a higher rate, and lower dollars at a lower rate. In one fell swoop, we have a solution to the problem of how to stop the sales tax from disproportionately punishing the poor. The income tax is inherently capable of reflecting the fact that not all dollars are equal, while the sales tax is not. Thus, an income tax is preferable to a sales tax. (Moreover, an income tax is more stable during recessions than a sales tax is.)

(Incidentally, if you've ever heard people arguing for a "flat tax," what they're usually talking about is an income tax with no brackets, and one single rate that treats all dollars equally. You can see why the rich would want that. But it'd be disastrous for the economy: Not only would the rich pay far less in taxes, but the poor would be horribly overburdened. For someone who's just getting by, every tax dollar hurts. A flat tax would be a recipe for social disaster and economic inequity out of control.)

Educational
1. Should the government abolish Affirmative Action?

Reagan did something similar in the 1980s, and "black America" went into a cultural tailspin. Without the extra social spending on the poor (and blacks were and still are disproportionately poor in this country), more kids turned to gangs and drugs, and we're seeing the costs of that today.

Affirmative action itself doesn't seem to be as effective as its advocates have hoped. It's also filled with constitutional problems. But what do you do when a whole segment of your population is effectively shut out from the material progress of the nation as a whole? There are all kinds of people on the right whose solution is, more or less, "Screw 'em. Let 'em figure it out for themselves." At best, this sentiment is civically irresponsible, selfish, and un-neighborly. In fact, however, it's often much worse than that, because the underlying emotion is not selfishness but enmity. In other words, many of the people who take this position are, frankly, racist. There are segments of the population with even worse poverty than blacks, such as Appalachian whites. I notice that these people are not the recipients of that same conservative enmity for "welfare."

We've forgotten what "welfare" actually means. It's not a government giveaway for deadbeats. "Welfare" is something every nation requires. Deconstruct it: It means "faring well." Everybody should have that, and governments should do what they can to foster it. When a culture has failed within a larger society, there are only two solutions: forcible correction and passive empowerment. Forcible correction is out of the question in this case. The reason black culture is as troubled as it is is that blacks were enslaved here for hundreds of years. Our ancestors broke the back of black culture. The same problem exists with our Native American population, following the genocide we visited upon them in years past. There are simply no easy answers here, but forcible anything is absolutely off the table.

That leaves passive empowerment...but how does that even work? What do you do to teach a child who doesn't want to learn? What do you do to welcome an adult into your culture who hates and distrusts you as much as they themselves have been hated and distrusted by people from that very culture? Affirmative action is one attempt at giving minorities and blacks in particular a leg-up. For all its own shortcomings, it seems to have done more good than some of our other efforts, such as the projects. But if you've got a better idea, that doesn't involve "Screw 'em," I'd love to hear it, because race relations in this country may be better than they were in the past, but they're still shit awful.

2. Should the government provide vouchers for private schools?

This probably deserves its own topic. In a word, no. Why? Because the very premise assumes that public education itself is inadequate (except in extremely remote locations). It's a self-defeating solution.

3. Should the states require K-12 students to complete Minimum Skills Tests?

This would probably fit into the "its own topic" that I just mentioned. I'll leave it for another time. In a word, yes. Why? Because evaluation (i.e., testing) is the only way to objectively measure how well the education system is working, without resorting to the context of economics.

If anyone would be willing to engage in a wholesome, scholarly discussion about these questions I had, it would ease my concerns (not so much that I'm losing sleep over it).

There you go. Since you asked. =)

Thought

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #26 on: December 07, 2009, 01:46:08 pm »
3. Should the states require K-12 students to complete Minimum Skills Tests?

This would probably fit into the "its own topic" that I just mentioned. I'll leave it for another time. In a word, yes. Why? Because evaluation (i.e., testing) is the only way to objectively measure how well the education system is working, without resorting to the context of economics.

The problem there is that what can be tested objectively tends to not be worth testing at all. Well... that's hyperbole, but still useful to say. If education is about memorizing the elements of the periodic table and their isotopes, then it is very easy to objectively test. Give then a paper, tell them to vomit the required information onto the paper, and then see what they got right and wrong. But if education is about critical thinking, about being a decent human being, things get a bit more tricksy. How should we test students in if they understand how to form legitimate and well-informed opinions? How can we test someone on if they are capable of appreciating Catcher in the Rye? Generally, we do this through essay questions, which are themselves about persuasive skills and conforming to expectations more than actually thought.

Some testing of route memorization is useful, but in a computerized era it becomes more important for individuals to understand how to handle information than to merely know the information themselves.

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2010, 03:47:42 pm »

Lord J Esq

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #28 on: April 20, 2010, 01:14:55 pm »
Upon hearing the latest news about executive bonuses...

All income of any kind beyond 20,000% of the federal poverty line for a family of comparable size should be taxed in a 90-or-higher percent bracket. (For a single individual, that works out to $2,166,000; for a family of two, $2,914,000; for four, $4,410,000.) I'm open to fiddling with the numbers, but the qualitative point is that, if you're wealthy enough that you're firmly making multimillions each year, your individual contribution to your success is insignificant compared to the stability and capacity of the nation, and you ought to pay your due. Another way to look at it is to estimate the multiple that your economic activities contribute to the national economy. If you're earning 100 times the median per capita income (which is roughly what $2,166,000 happens to be; that's how I got the 20,000% figure), but you're not contributing 100 times the economic growth, then to occupy a similar tax bracket is an institutional evasion of your obligations. And if you are contributing 100 times the growth? You're not. Those kinds of numbers are not realistic or even plausible for individuals to achieve, and we only suspect otherwise because of the illusion that executive management is synonymous with the corporation itself. I admit this sometimes to be true in matters of scruple, but in raw economic activity the management is only another division and is permanently constrained from becoming vastly more economically significant than the corporation as a whole because of the nature of how a business works.

So if you're gonna pull in a grotesque $30,000,000 bonus while the nation is still reeling from income stagnation, debt, and unemployment, then you're gonna be paying 90 percent on as much as $27,834,000 of that, which comes out to $25,050,600, leaving you with $2,783,400, which still isn't too friggin' bad, especially since that bonus of yours most likely is totally independent from the company's actual profits or losses, so don't start talking to me about Chairman Mao.

Lax taxation leads to obscene compensation for the people who are able to game the corporate world and get to the top. It's a matter of national prosperity; for that kind of money to be taxed at such a low rate is literally the redistribution of wealth, away from the people who actually created it and into the hands of those who allege they deserve it for themselves. It is legal theft, and a big reason for our current national troubles.

FaustWolf

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Re: Armchair Economists, Unite!
« Reply #29 on: April 20, 2010, 02:42:39 pm »
Speaking of "business models," the thing that gets me is that the pay these executives make is, in part if not in whole, a transfer of value from the workers who made the product to the executive. In classical economic theory, a perfectly functioning economy will ensure that wages are equal to the marginal product of labor. I can't shake the feeling that what we're seeing here is a wage level far below the MPL, with that value being transferred from the worker to the executive. This is a damning thing to be happening when the median real household income in the US has remained stagnant for about a decade.

In my opinion, a superior business model in terms of economic efficiency would revolve around contracts that spread profit among all workers roughly equally. If value is to be determined in the market, then I posit that it is essentially impossible to pay workers the marginal product of their labor with an ex ante contract; it's a mere prognostication, and possibly a very poor one at that. I would still favor contracts offering a specific wage so that living standards aren't subject to wild downward fluctuations when business is bad, but if the business is wildly successful and earns tremendous profits, that shouldn't be hoarded at the top levels of a company.


If I may go on a tangent, imagine how well these executives could serve the economy by organizing private work projects for the unemployed. I see absolutely no reason to tolerate the unemployment of those who are willing to work. Letting these people languish is only degrading the economy's stock of human capital. I solve this problem in my own life by working for free just to maintain and hopefully expand my skillset during periods like this, but very few people have such an option. Plus, I fear the repercussions of mixing unpaid workers with paid workers; the paid workers may be held to near-inhuman standards, and nevermind that the paid workers are probably working for pay because they have people to support and take care of!

The phenomenon of unpaid work in a capitalist economy is extremely fascinating. It seems like it should be a paradox, but in fact a history of unpaid work is becoming more and more critical to scoring paid employment. That Will Smith movie, In Pursuit of Happyness? That shit happens! And what it does is effectively bar people with kids, or who have other major expenses, from the best jobs. This is how people get locked into low-wage work, and I think unfairly, and I think inefficiently.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2010, 02:50:50 pm by FaustWolf »