Marle Paradox: Let's change our point of view

[chrono eric]

Very, very clever Eske. Now let's try to mold your new Dream/time travel theory into one that is just as accurate and useful but without problems like this.

[Eske]

muahaha.   It's true, I should come up with a replacement but I think it would be too time consuming (and arrogant) to come up with a counter to conventional Compendium theories  -   if it's even possible at all.

I will say that my example in my last post points out the most obvious problem with Compendium theories - the real reason why it is so disconnected from Chrono Trigger:

The Entity basically damns the Crono Team to die through fusions and hurt friendships with TB/TTI combos  i.e.
Lucca: "Oh why are you here Magus?"
Magus: "I TOLD YOU FIVE TIMES I'VE BEEN TRAVELLING WITH YOU THE WHOLE TIME LUCCA, SHUT UP!!". 

Also, it damns itself into repeating the same segment(s) of time over and over again, possibly in more and more absurd ways.

Hmph, I didn't glean that the Entity was both sadistic and foolish.    I don't know about anyone else, but the Fiona Forest scene gave me the impression that the Entity was intelligent, aware of its heroes, and cared about their feelings  (Lucca gate).   

The Compendium model shows the Entity choosing an immortal life of insanity over a simple death.   Really?

I'm thinking about creating a little think tank in a thread somewhere - that way new theories can be created by people bouncing ideas around.  Here's hoping   

[chrono eric]

But our theories kick so much ass though...

[Eske]

But our theories kick so much ass though...

True, but to me it seems like they were created through gameplay observation first, then, after the framework was laid down, plot points were taken into consideration.  Unfortunately, some plot points were cast aside as mistakes in favor of other gameplay observations.

Yes TB and TTI work, technically  -  if you don't care about the Entities intentions  or  if you don't question a certain aspect of Crono's resurrection which I will question now:

If TTI is legit, why would they need a Crono clone?  If its sole purpose is to identify who you want to save (which I know some people will say), why, then, would they have to replace Crono with the clone?     TTI holds that they wouldn't need to.   Crono's appearance in 2300AD will be preserved no matter what.
TTI/TB supporters have to either make baseless assumptions to explain this away or simply pull out the oversight card.

C'mon, really? 

[chrono eric]

Not oversight - gameplay quirk would be my guess. It's simply fun to collect what you need in order to save Crono.

Or one more possibility: It's mentioned that the Time Egg will not work unless you put in sufficient effort into saving your friend. Perhaps the seemingly pointless task of getting a Crono clone was part of this?

And in the case of the normal or "traditional" concept of time travel, TTI/TB is necessesary to prevent paradoxes. You can't write a time travel story without it or something very similar as I've said before.

Unless, that story is not about normal or "traditional" time travel. Your dream theory seems to hold promise in this.

[Eske]

Not oversight - gameplay quirk would be my guess. It's simply fun to collect what you need in order to save Crono.

Or one more possibility: It's mentioned that the Time Egg will not work unless you put in sufficient effort into saving your friend. Perhaps the seemingly pointless task of getting a Crono clone was part of this?

And in the case of the normal or "traditional" concept of time travel, TTI/TB is necessesary to prevent paradoxes. You can't write a time travel story without it or something very similar as I've said before.

Unless, that story is not about normal or "traditional" time travel. Your dream theory seems to hold promise in this.

Yep, that is what I'm hoping for.  I want something that stays true to the plot points in the game:

When Marle disappears, Lucca explains that it was due to Leene not being saved and her particularly evil quote "something must happen to the Queen in this era"  (think about it and you will see why it is evil to the Compendium)  is the game's rationalization for the whole incident.

When they replace Crono with the clone, the most obvious reasoning would be:  If they don't see something that at least looked exactly like Crono get blasted by Lavos, they won't initiate the search.

It is only with the advent of TTI that this entire episode becomes distorted.

[chrono eric]

So...any new progress Eske?

[Eske]

maybe. I'm going to hold off it for now and just let it soak in the back of my mind.  I want to go back to what we were doing before,  I feel more progress can be made that way.

[chrono eric]

OK then  . I've been holding off too because I wanted to see what you came up with. So I think I'm going to make a Dead Sea thread in a few days trying to re-analyze it with our modified theories. There's a lot of potential in that I think. For example, our theory on the effects of TTI and TB after the dimensional split actually predicted the existence of the Dead Sea and the "reason" why there was only one version of Crono and co. that could save the world.

But what I am stumbling on is why the Dead Sea is frozen, and why the explanation for this as given in Chrono Cross suggests that it represents a potential future only and that Serge and crew didn't actually travel through time. I need to think about it some more.

[placidchap]

Here is a little something I did...forgive me if this was discussed or mentioned but there is jsut too much to read and ponder!
I have trouble understanding these theories when people start using the variable X...so I made a picture to go along with my post (as well as leaving out any X variable).

The pinkish red lines are Marle’s departure and arrival regarding time travel.
The green lines are in regards to Crono’s time travel.
The combined pink and green is both of them travelling in time.

T1
No time travel.  No problems.  Unaltered history (presumably)

T2
6.0 to 9.9 – no change from T1
9.9 to 10.0 -  m goes to 6.0 on T3

T3
6.0 – m arrives, mistakenly assumed to be l, search for l is aborted
6.0 to 6.2 –time when l was originally rescued passes, specifically at the crossed out O2; this is what causes the eventual change at the blue line on the same T3
6.3 to 9.x – events occur that prevent m from being born, a temporal disturbance at the blue line occurs when m was supposed to be born.
9.7 to x.x – c’ never knows of m (not relevant), presumably does not time travel.

T4
6.0 to 6.2 – remains the same as T4 as this happened before any time altering events.  Call it TTI if you want but I don’t think that is technically it.
6.2 to 6.3 – m disappears due to temporal disturbance [linked with unsuccessful rescue and m’s birth].  Causes the search for l to continue.
6.3 to 6.4 – l is rescued and m reappears causing another temporal disturbance that basically negates the first, as seen by the brown line
6.4 to 9.x – time continues “normally”, m in the past either dies off, is killed etc to prevent any further time anomalies.
[this is where we start in the game]
9.7 to 9.9 – m continues as she did in T2, travelling back to the past
10.0 – c does not forget about m as the two disturbances negate each other.
10.1 to 10.2 – c travels to 6.1 on T5

T5
As seen in game once c travels back to 6.1 (used 6.1 as he arrives later than m)


[attachment deleted by admin]

[stenir]

Here's my question on the matter.

I may not be understanding TTI fully, but are there any ramifications for, say, Crono altering Marle's past?

What I mean to say is, as you see the story unfold, Marle doesn't "disappear" until Crono interacts with her. While TTI states that because a person has time-travelled they cannot alter their events, my question is whether the following could occur through TTI:

Marle travels to the past. Crono also travels to the past. Because Crono is in the past (and Lucca, judging by the fact she retains the memory of the events occuring), Crono now has a different viewpoint of the timeline. Crono watches as Marle disappears, and if you return with both Lucca and Crono in your party, Marle is still not there. However, everyone else in the castle still acts as if she is upstairs.

If it were truly a paradox, time would have altered so that everyone was looking for Leene again, since Marle no longer "existed" to call off the search. So, what if there is some weird mechanism by which Crono and Lucca, because they have TTI, remember the events Marle took part in, and therefore remember her being in the past. Something along the lines of Crono and Lucca, who have TTI themselves, see something different than those of 600 AD.

A good thought is whether or not if you were to bring the King or anyone else into the room whether they would see Marle or not. Even as a temporal anomaly, perhaps Marle could be seen by those without TTI, but TTI grants a sort of visual perception not normally had by people.

Hope I got that out right.

EDIT:

Why is Time Traveler's Immunity always active? What if it is gained, but only activates under certain conditions?

[utunnels]

Perhaps Marle Paradox is only a trick(and the dreamstone is the key item ) of the "Entity" in order to warn them the great disaster the planet is facing. Or else, is there a reason they should stay in 600 A.D.?

[stenir]

I think we try to avoid the catch all of "The Entity did it". Granted, we all doubt they were trying to stick to a set of rules (wouldn't it be better to say "the Kato did it"?). So, we are trying to find an explanation for something that didn't truly have one.

Perhaps it's all just a matter of viewpoint. We play as Crono throughout the game, so we see things as Crono sees them. Perhaps, depending on the viewpoint, Crono would remember Marle's actions but not see her, which would also explain why everyone in the castle still believes she is up in the Queen's bedroom, even though we know she's not.

Crono might be the only one who couldn't see her in this theory (Lucca probably wouldn't as well, but since in normal gameplay you don't take Lucca up to the Queen's bedroom until after Leene is saved). Everyone else still believes Leene is up in the Queen's room otherwise they'd go looking for her...again, and time would be set back on course, meaning she'd be upstairs...wait, this is another start to a Grandfather Paradox.

Which of course, can't happen according to our thoughts on the matter.

So, the question is what if TTI gives you some extra temporal senses? Because Crono and Lucca time traveled, they saw Marle disappear, but because of the view point, everyone else just sees her still there. Hmm.

[FouCapitan]

I hold on to my previous assessment that TTI is incorrect.  The Marle paradox and the use of the clone only make sense when TTI is applied.  If a theory causes problems with major plot points in the game, wouldn't it be fair to question it?  So far TTI has only been used to explain transient or subtle questions in regard to the effects of time travel.  Why doesn't this guy mention knowing them, why don't their memories change, and so on.

It's quite obvious from Marle's erasure from history and having to use the doll to swap Crono out of his own death that time travellers are not immune to their own actions.  They are, in fact, very vulnerable to them.

[stenir]

Wait a minute! If you say that Marle's erasure from history is due to their being no such thing as TTI, then we have a big problem on our hands. If TTI does not exist, in which case Marle's disappearance functions correctly, then Crono and Lucca do not come back in time because they would never meet her, and then we have the Grandfather Paradox continually running in circles. If TTI does not exist, then Marle's actions in the past will not take place originally, then they will, then they won't, etc. It's a neverending loop at that point. The entire game and a bunch of mini-areas are all GPs. Marle's is one, stopping Lavos is another. These are the two main TTIs in my opinion. I still hold regard that it's a matter of probabilities.

I'm working on researching to come up with a full on explanation that adds to TTI and TB but accounts for Marle's paradox at the same time. I have mentioned it a few times, the Theory of Probabilities. I know people don't like taking certain blocks of text literally, but let's look at this quote by Belthasar on Serge's predicament:

   Serge... This world is not
   the world you grew up in.
   10 years ago, something
   happened that put your very
   soul teetering on the
   balancing scales of fate...
   with a fifty-fifty chance
   of life or death!
   This is when your future
   was split in twain.

I stated quite a while ago the following:

Crono's appearance at Death Peak is not assured, as it requires, according to Gaspar, a certain amount of effort to be put into retrieving Crono for him to actually be retrieved. If it were an assured event, then all the rest of the group would have to do is just sit there and wait for him to show up. But this goes back to the Free Will theory, that inaction produces no action, and that until the group actually performs an action, the resulting chain of events does not yet occur. Until Marle and whoever the player picks to join her travel into the pocket dimension during that frozen second, and until they decide and will themselves to exchange Crono and the clone, Crono is not assured to appear at Death Peak.

Perhaps this lends credence to not necessarily a single event being the point of timeline alteration, but rather a checklist. Like, in order for Crono to appear once again, the following must occur: 1) The Time Egg is used at Death Peak; 2) A clone of Crono must be present; 3) The clone must be shifted into Crono's position and Crono be removed from where he was at; and 4) Crono must be removed from the pocket dimension. So it's a chain of events, and if all four of those do not take place, then the theoretical #5) Crono appears at Death Peak, cannot occur.

Quote
Marle Paradox

   Leene is supposed to be saved at Time X, this is what the Entity recalls.  Leene is, however, not saved at Time X - ultimately forcing her doom.  We see, in game, that Yakra is moments away from killing Queen Leene in the Cathedral when we find them.  It was, perhaps, not possible for Frog to save the Queen alone in time.  Though Crono and Lucca intervene to make saving the Queen possible, this is only after the ultimate result has been witnessed: Marle ceases to exist.
   
   When the three of them save Queen Leene, they create a new Time X within the Dreamline where Marle's family line is restored, therefore Marle's previous actions are recalled by the Entity, placing her exactly where she was first forgotten.

While I would initially reference my theory that a 50%-50% of something happening (50% of the time Leene is saved, 50% of the time she is killed, in this example) allows a timeline to stay in a sort of Limbo (which if you read my latest post on my discussion on whether the universe was split or duplicated in Chrono Cross, I state the theory could explain both Belthasar's statement that the 50-50 probability of Serge's life or death and the reasoning for the universe splitting and Another World not being shifted to the DBT due to the uncertainty), perhaps a modified version could be applied here. Notice how I stated that 50% of the time Leene is saved/killed, not Marle. Say whichever has the higher percentage of probability is what occurs. The moment one of the two options breaks 50%, it becomes the event in the current timeline.

Since Lucca arrived pretty much right after Marle "disappeared", we can safely assume that Lucca had gained TTI by this time. So, we have Crono and Lucca both with TTI. Let's say they decide to just sit around. Well, then Frog is left to go after Yakra by himself. Continuing on, let's assume that Frog makes his way through the cathedral until he reaches Yakra's room. Any idea of who is going to win in a Frog vs. Yakra match? Probably Yakra. Okay, so probability here is that while Frog's intervention delayed the Queen's death, it didn't prevent it. Then we can add in Crono and Lucca, and boom, the chances rise. For an example (and don't quote me on these being actual percentages, since we don't know), here's some example values to illustrate.

Remember, the Percentage theory (gotta think of a better name for it) states that until a choice rises about 50%, the timeline is in Limbo.

1. Timeline at start of game: Leene is kidnapped, but soldiers find her and defeat Yakra. Leene's survival rate: 100%. Leene survives and Marle exists.

2. Timeline after Marle time-travels: Leene is kidnapped. Marle has not yet chosen to interact with the citizens of the Kingdom of Guardia in 600, so the soldiers still find Leene and defeat Yakra. Leene's survival rate: 100%. Leene survives and Marle exists.

3. Timeline after Marle time-travels and Crono time-travels: Leene is kidnapped. Marle may not have chosen to interact with the citizens of the Kingdom of Guardia yet (this would allow for Lucca to travel back still), so the soldiers still find Leene and defeat Yakra. Leene's survival rate: 100%. Leene survives and Marle exists.

4. Timeline after all three have time traveled: Leene is kidnapped. While the soldiers are out looking for Marle in different groups, one small contingent finds Marle while the rest are looking in the Cathedral for Leene. When word is heard that "Leene" (Marle) is found, the search is called off moments before finding Yakra and the real queen. Crono is just now approaching the castle, and Lucca has appeared in the past, thereby giving her the TTI she needs to still be there.

At this point, we get to a slight discussion of how the Probability Theory (there, better name) takes effect. We have three possible outcomes at this point: a) Yakra kills the Queen; b) Yakra fights Frog and kills the Queen; c) Yakra fights Frog, Crono, and Lucca, and doesn't kill the Queen. At this point, until any action is made, there is a 66% chance (since until an action is made all probable outcomes have the same probability) that the Queen will die. So, the Queen dies since that probability is a 2 in 3 chance she'll die. However, becomes the timeline doesn't know which of the two timelines where she dies to utilize (where Yakra kills the Queen and then the one where Yakra fights Frog and then kills the Queen), the timeline is still in Limbo, which unfortunately has the side effect of removing Marle from the "timeline" (partially because she would no longer exist, but also because the timeline is in such a state of limbo that she's not shunted to the DBT).

5. The final timeline: Leene is kidnapped. While the soldiers are out looking for Marle in different groups, one small contingent finds Marle while the rest are looking in the Cathedral for Leene. When word is heard that "Leene" (Marle) is found, the search is called off moments before finding Yakra and the real queen. Crono watches as Marle is shunted into a state of Timeline Limbo due to the Probability Theory, and he and Lucca go off and help Frog defeat Yakra. Upon defeating Yakra, he can no longer kill Leene, and the one remaining timeline, where Leene is saved, takes precedence and the timeline realigns itself with the events of that outcome (which now has a 100% chance of happening). Leene's survival is now at 100% once more, and Leene is alive and Marle is returned from her Timeline Limbo state, as the probability she exists in this timeline is 100% again.

The Theory of Probabilities would function along the lines of timelines altering based on a "majority wins" rule with regards to probabilities. In my discussion above, Marle's disappearance occurs prior to Leene's death. This is the true plot hole, not Marle's disappearance. Since inaction causes no action, and just because it's a certainty that Leene is going to be killed, there is no reason for Marle to disappear when she did. If Leene were to be killed, at that point we'd have the paradoxical problem we continually refer to as the MP. And that point only.

Serge had a 50-50 chance of death or survival. The time line split due to it, even Belthasar makes this statement. However, Kid has the pendant with her, so that makes the time line split in conjunction with the 50-50 survival rate. I mention that, because in CT, if you apply the percentages rule to that Keystone, and apply it to the Marle Paradox, we are left wondering why the timeline doesn't split. I know you are probably saying "but the pendant was there". Not entirely. If we say that Kid's actions with resulted in the 50-50 chance of Serge's survival while she was wearing the pendant, then Marle's actions without wearing the pendant account for the difference. However, the pendant was present (in Crono's inventory) when Marle was about to be shunted, so perhaps it acted as a counter measure. However, because it wasn't charged (Kid's pendant is barely what, 16 years after the events at the Ocean Palace while Marle's is 13,000 years old), it was only able to keep the timelines in a state of overlap for the moment, instead of splitting them apart (which I would deem is more stable).

And as far as using a clone to swap out Crono doesn't mean anything bad on TTI. How else are you suggesting Crono be maneuvered out? Conservation of Energy is the key here. By placing the Crono clone in for Crono, we have a slightly more balance CoE, the whole thing stating that energy can be neither created nor destroyed. We are replacing one form of energy (Crono) with another (Crono clone). There's no TTI involved.